China’s ability to meet climate targets drops sharply, casting doubt on its efforts to reduce emissions and meet international climate goals. China, the world’s top carbon polluter and second-largest economy, has been sloppy in addressing climate-warming emissions. This raises concerns among international climate stakeholders.
The Chinese government, famed for seldom missing targets, now struggles with energy security and has almost no political will to close the carbon deficit. China’s planning body, the NDRC, recognized that it failed its objective last year and promised to “raise the game” on energy conservation and carbon reduction this year.
Analysts demonstrate that China is well behind its primary goals of a 13.5% energy intensity reduction and an 18% carbon intensity decrease between 2021 and 2025. The absolute carbon intensity rates are particularly important to China’s goal of peak emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.
However, the NDRC 2024 targets are too low, with fresh instructions for a 2.5% energy intensity reduction and no carbon intensity target. The fact that coal, the most polluting fossil fuel, is not controlled makes the effort harder. Analysts warn that if China doesn’t fulfill its 2025 emissions targets, global distrust may mount, threatening its diplomatic credibility.
China’s temperature growth, which accounts for about a third of global emissions, is attracting worldwide attention. China’s claim that it does more than poor nations is prevalent, yet its per capita emissions are 15% higher than OECD averages.
Experts recommend that China enhance efficiency in the industry and construction sectors, provide financial help for enterprises to refurbish or replace aging facilities, and extend the carbon market to regain equilibrium.
China’s pivot from adding non-fossil fuels to energy intensity calculations and then removing them sparked arguments about whether traditional fuel businesses or renewable energy industries are driving economic growth. Few countries can boast about punishing their leaders for failing to meet climate goals. China can do this since job evaluations are linked to environmental development.
Analysts recommend a major increase in China’s climate efforts to reach intensity targets, but the recent government work report lacks decisiveness.
