The recent success of Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally in the first round of France’s parliamentary elections could significantly impact relations between France and Germany. Analysts warn that this outcome may challenge the longstanding Franco-German alliance and complicate German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s agenda.
Cornelia Woll, president of Berlin’s Hertie School, notes that a National Rally majority in France’s parliament could alter the dynamics of the Franco-German relationship, which relies heavily on close ministerial contacts. The National Rally’s explicitly anti-German stance would necessitate significant efforts to normalize relations between the two countries.
Chancellor Scholz has already expressed his concerns about the French election, stating his preference for “any party without Le Pen” while acknowledging that the ultimate decision lies with the French people. German media has focused on the risks posed to French President Emmanuel Macron and the potential for Germany to face a Eurosceptic government in France.
Matthias Diermeier, a political economist at the German Economic Institute, highlights the difficulties Germany would face in pursuing significant EU projects if the National Rally succeeds. He emphasizes the fear among German politicians of a Eurosceptic French government, particularly one led by Jordan Bardella, who questions the European Energy Union and the fiscal conservatism of the Growth and Stability Pact.
Woll further suggests that if the National Rally gains a majority, France might shift its focus from Germany to Italy, where it may be easier to build political alliances. The historically challenging Franco-German relationship might not be enough to bridge the partisan political gap that the National Rally represents.
