The ongoing efforts to repair relations between Turkey and Syria resemble a sophisticated political chess game in which neither party is ready to make the last move. Bashar al-Assad has admitted that reconciliation efforts have been a strategic deadlock despite Russia, Iran, and Iraq’s diplomatic overtures.
Turkey suspended ties with Syria in 2011 to support the rebellion against al-Assad. Today, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan tentatively offered to meet with al-Assad. Turkish troops in northern Syria remain a major obstacle to discussions. Al-Assad has stated that Turkey’s withdrawal is not a prerequisite for discussion, but it remains a major issue.
Russia led the diplomatic effort to bring Erdogan and al-Assad face-to-face, but a planned August meeting fell through, underscoring the process’s fragility. Turkey’s military participation in Syria, largely to fight the Kurdish PKK, which it considers a terrorist organisation, escalates geopolitical tensions.
Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has maintained that normalising relations with Syria does not mean abandoning the Syrian opposition, complicating the rapprochement. Erdogan faces rising domestic pressure due to the 3.6 million Syrian refugees in Turkey, making the balance between national interests and regional diplomacy tougher than ever.
Can Erdogan and al-Assad negotiate this geopolitical minefield, or will their rapprochement efforts fail again?
Image Credit: https://arabcenterdc.org/resource/how-realistic-is-an-erdogan-assad-rapprochement/
